Sif (AO) | Hold | FID hopes improving, but with a FY 2026 earnings downgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Sif (AO) | Hold | FID hopes improving, but with a FY 2026 earnings downgrade

Sif Hold | Target Price: EUR6.70

Company description Management

Sif is a Dutch manufacturer of XXL monopile foundations for offshore wind. With Fred van Beers, CEO

facilities in Roermond and a new quayside factory at Rotterdam Maasvlakte, Sif Boudewijn van Schaik, CFO

rolls, welds and assembles large-diameter steel piles and transition pieces. The

expansion lifts nameplate capacity toward 500 kt/yr and enables 9–11 m, 2,500- Key shareholders

ton piles. Customers include leading developers across NW Europe. Sif also offers Free float 45.30%

engineering, coating and marshalling. Sif targets lower LCOE through early Peter Visser 49.20% Egeria 5.50%

engineering and scale.

Investment case Valuation methodology

Sif is ramping its expanded Maasvlakte 2 facility to produce XXL We use a weighted average of three different valuation

monopiles. Startup delays have weighed on near-term margins. methodologies (DCF, EV/EBITDA, P/E) to arrive at our target

Management targets ramp-up completion in H1 2026. If price.

achieved, fixed-cost absorption should drive meaningful Risks to our rating

operating leverage. Ramp-up under-delivery at the new Maasvlakte plant.

Near-term monopile demand looks soft while European Offshore wind downturn taking longer than expected.

capacity keeps coming online, and Chinese suppliers are Competitive pressure further intensifying from new

competing aggressively on price. This mix points to lower European/Asian entrants.

utilisation and margin pressure before the cycle improves.

If we adjust for equity-like debt instruments and a sizable

negative working-capital position that will unwind over the next

few years, Sif's balance sheet looks more stretched.

Catalysts