Friday Flyer

Research evidence excerpt

Friday Flyer

Airlines

Domestic Airlines - Market Weight

Legacy Airlines - Market Overweight

Friday Flyer June 19, 2026

ARC Strength Continued in May

The Wolfe Byte

In today's Flyer, we review the latest ARC data for the month of May.

Scott Group

sgroup@wolferesearch.com

●Strong May ARC Data. In today's note, we highlight the most recent ARC ticket (646) 845-0721

data for May. As a reminder, the ARC data captures tickets sold by third-party View Scott’s Research

agencies only, thus representing only 20%-30% of total tickets sold in the U.S. View Comp Table

After trends in April improved sequentially across most segments, the ARC Preston Webb

data remained strong overall in May. Overall, total ARC ticket sales increased pwebb@wolferesearch.com

+14.8% y/y in May, roughly flat sequentially from +14.7% in April. Meanwhile,

average fares increased +19% y/y in May, accelerated from +16% y/y in April

and the largest y/y increase since February 2023.

●Domestic Leading the Way. Among the ARC ticket regional segments,

domestic fare revenue materially outpaced international as domestic fare

revenues increased 21% y/y in May, up slightly from +20% in April. Meanwhile,

international fare revenue increased 8% y/y in May, decelerated slightly from

+10% in April. On a y/y basis, domestic fares have outpaced international fares

for 14 straight months (excluding the government shutdown in November).

●What Does this Mean for 2Q? All the airlines continue to cite very strong

pricing/yield increases, and generally a lack of elasticity with continued strong

demand. Interestingly, none of the airlines have provided any intra-quarter

guidance updates for 2Q. So we expect 2Q revenue guides are intact with

potential for modest upside in our view.