Friday Freight

Research evidence excerpt

Friday Freight

June 19, 2026

to acknowledge the tighter TL backdrop, which in turn limited pricing upside

during bids. But as the tightness in the TL market has now persisted for several

months, shippers are increasingly willing to accept that the environment has

changed and this isn’t just a temporary blip. As a result, this broker is now able

to quickly raise rates to reflect the much tighter market with a big pick-up in

mini-bid activity and re-bids for customers with low tender acceptance levels.

As these mini-bids and re-bids are taking place, this broker is now consistently

seeing 10%-15% rate increases while winning additional freight at the same

time. This broker is also seeing spot volumes pick up meaningfully, with 20%

growth off a relatively low base. Putting it all together, this broker’s gross

profit per load is tracking up over 20% sequentially so far in 2Q. Additionally,

the number of loss-making loads in 2Q has declined dramatically compared

with 1Q. Lastly, our contact is hearing more from shippers looking for details

about this broker’s carrier compliance program. Thus, our contact is increasingly

confident that large brokers should be well positioned post the Montgomery

ruling. Our contact also believes that TL carriers with conditional safety ratings

will ultimately be forced out of the market, thus keeping pressure on industry

supply in the months ahead.

●Railroads (Market Overweight): We spoke with a large chemicals shipper

about recent demand, pricing, and service trends with the Class I rails. Starting

with the macro environment, higher crude oil and related petroleum product

prices have been a tailwind for this producer. This producer is able to offset

higher raw material costs with increased pricing to customers. Also, U.S.