Lanxess 2Q26 Preview - Pricing Support Near Term, But Risk on H2 Remains

Research evidence excerpt

Lanxess 2Q26 Preview - Pricing Support Near Term, But Risk on H2 Remains

EUROPE | Chemicals

LANXESS EquityJuneResearch18, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGELanxess 2Q26 Preview - Pricing Support Near

RATING UNDERPERFORMTerm, But Risk on H2 Remains

PRICE €16.11^

We make limited EBITDA changes but lower our target price to €14 and

reiterate UNDERPERFORM. While Q2 benefits from pricing support, we PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €14.00 (€16.00) | -13%

estimate EBITDA at €147m (-2% YoY), highlighting underlying demand 52W HIGH-LOW €27.14 - €11.03

weakness (albeit on an imperfect comp). Looking ahead, we see rising FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 100.0% | 11.28

risk of demand destruction into H2 (7% below FY26 cons). With our base MARKET CAP €1.4B | $1.6B

case assuming Envalior cash realisation in 2028, we see limited near-term TICKER LXS GR ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

catalysts to drive a re-rating. noted.

Operationally, remaining under pressure. Utilisation rates are still depressed, and the high FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

fixed-cost base continues to constrain EBITDA. Peak disruption is Asia-centric, with feedstock 2026 2027 2026 2027

and energy tightness (notably naphtha and gas) reducing Asian exports into Europe and REV NA NA -1% -3%

supporting pricing (price hikes of up to ~50%). However, spreads are already rolling over,

EPS +5% -3% NA NA

and the risk of H2 demand destruction poses a clear downside to volumes. We forecast Q2

EBITDA of €147m (-2% yoy - albeit it not a direct comp), with pricing tailwinds offset by weaker

2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

underlying demand. For FY26, we forecast €478m, c. 4% below the midpoint of guidance and

EPS -- -- -- -- 0.17

7% below consensus.

PREV 0.16

Envalior cash realisation delayed to 2028.