Blayne's Bytes: Memory Thoughts, Vera’s Enterprise Push, Semis News

Research evidence excerpt

Blayne's Bytes: Memory Thoughts, Vera’s Enterprise Push, Semis News

y F28. We expect

robust InP demand to persist in the foreseeable future, although there is a potential risk of long-term

oversupply should industry capacity scale more aggressively than demand. JX Advanced Metal is also

in discussions with customers about raising prices, suggesting potential cost pressure on InP laser

vendors such as COHR/LITE, but we reiterate that the 1.6T modules carry considerably better margins

vs 800G (similar cost/die size but double ASPs). Please see Carlos' note HERE.

TSMC CoPoS Pilot Signals Increasing PLP Push - Positive for Semi Cap: Recent reports indicate

TSMC is now running a dual-track CoPoS pilot line evaluation with one line led by major global WFE

vendors and the other by Taiwanese equipment makers. This is another data point highlighting a more

formal push toward panel-level packaging (PLP), a transition we have been highlighting for months

and one that provides upside to WFE spend into the end of the decade. We continue to view CoPoS as

the logical extension of TSMC's roadmap, especially as PLP offers improved thermal characteristics

as AI accelerator power density rises. At the same time, the dual-track evaluation highlights growing

competition across the equipment ecosystem, with both global and local vendors participating across

deposition, RDL, and inspection steps as TSMC builds out its supply chain. This is consistent with the

broader trend we flagged in recent weeks, where PLP is moving from early R&D toward full ecosystem

formation with multiple panel sizes, process flows, and suppliers being tested in parallel. While we

previously highlighted execution risk that could slow near-term adoption, the latest developments