RBC Elements™: The EV Slowdown

Research evidence excerpt

RBC Elements™: The EV Slowdown

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Tom Narayan (Analyst)

(212) 428-2364,

tom.narayan@rbccm.com

Thomas Ito, CFA (Senior

Associate)

(212) 301-1402,

thomas.ito@rbccm.com

June 18, 2026

RBC Elements™: The EV SlowdownRESEARCH Charging Network Expands; Used BEV Prices Remain a Drag

Our view: In this report, we leverage the capabilities of RBC ElementsTM, our proprietary in-house data

science team to determine what we think is a key and overlooked driver for the EV slowdown - used car

prices in the US. We also note that European public charging infrastructure has dramatically improved

in 2026. Our work causes us to cut our 2030 US and China BEV forecasts by 10% and 2% respectively,

though we raise our 2030 Europe BEV forecast by 24%. These changes are positive for legacy US-exposed

OEMs GM/F and negative for pure-play EV makers RIVN/LCID/TSLA. That said, an eventual EV demandEQUITY recovery in the US could provide an opportunity for TSLA to further consolidate market share.

Used prices in the US remains a key, overlooked driver for depressed EV sales. Following the start of

the Iran conflict, investors have wondered if EV demand could surge given elevated gas prices. Thus far,

we have not seen any evidence that higher gas prices are changing consumer purchasing behavior (US

EV sales in April and May were down 22% and 20%, respectively). Besides the absence of the $7,500

IRA tax credit, we think the main driver for poor EV sales is that used BEVs are priced well below new

BEVs. In California for example, which represents 39% of US BEV sales, new BEV registrations declined

by 15% y/y but at the same time, used increased 30% y/y. Further, used BEV now sell at a discount to

used ICEs, while new BEVs are priced 23% higher than new ICE vehicles.