Iran MoU Flashpoints: Uncharted Waters

Research evidence excerpt

Iran MoU Flashpoints: Uncharted Waters

Operational Min.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lebanon: Dealbreaker?

We continue to believe that strikes in southern Lebanon, country's security interests. Hezbollah also remains a sticking

which have persisted after the deal, pose a spoiler risk to the point for the Israeli leadership despite several rounds of US-

agreement’s durability. Following fighting between IDF troops brokered talks with the Lebanese officials. Israel has been

and Hezbollah operatives that continued through this week in reluctant to commit to withdrawing its troops from occupied

territories under Israeli occupation, Lebanon has now territory in southern Lebanon, and these strikes come despite

reported multiple Israeli drone strikes and fatalities that have some previous statements indicating a willingness to halt

occurred within a day of the deal’s signature. As the attacks on Hezbollah north of the Litani River after last week's

announced terms include a cessation of these attacks, this strikes around Beirut drew criticism from President Trump.

news seems to constitute a violation of Iranian MoU Hence, we do not rule out the potential for further Israeli

expectations. Israeli officials had quickly voiced concerns over strikes on Iran and escalating concern from Iran. With Iranian

the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire and being sidelined officials maintaining that the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon

from negotiations without some of their key concerns being is a core requirement of the agreement, we think the

addressed, and we believe Prime Minister Netanyahu will seek continued Israeli presence could be a dealbreaker on the eve

to retain the right to independent kinetic action to secure his of the nuclear negotiations.