RBC Elements™: Trans Mountain Tanker Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

RBC Elements™: Trans Mountain Tanker Tracker

three transfers occurring in the Pacific Lightering area (flat sequentially). There were also

three shipments to South Korea (flat sequentially), four to Washington state (up from nil),

and two to Alaska (up from nil). Finally, there was one tanker that routed to an undisclosed

US port.

• Tanker volumes in May would suggest to us that the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMPL) ran

close to contracted capacity rates of 712,000 bbl/d. We understand that about 30 Aframax

tanker loadings per month approximately equate to full utilization of the TMPL’s 890,000

bbl/d nameplate capacity. Our RBC ElementsTM report: Trans Mountain Tanker Tracker (TTT),

triangulates where tankers that have loaded crude oil from the Westridge Marine Terminal

(Burnaby) are headed. Our proprietary geospatial analysis tracks vessels based on Automatic

Identification System (AIS) pings within defined “Areas of Interest” around identified ports.

This is then cross-referenced with satellite imagery and Marine Traffic to confirm tanker

movements.

Physical Flow Summary

• Crude exports from Vancouver improved sequentially in May, with departed vessels rising

to 26 (+2 vessels month-over-month) and volumes reaching around 13.9 million barrels

(+9% month-over-month). This represents the highest ship count and crude volume since

November, as well as an 11% increase in crude exports year-over-year. Geographically, See RBC Elements page at the end

volumes into the US surged month-over-month, pushing the US share of cargoes to the of this note.

highest since September, while direct-to-APAC exports fell both in absolute terms and in

the destination mix. This was a slight retracement from April, when APAC-bound volumes

had regained a more normalized share versus March lows.