ルネサスエレクトロニクス: データセンタ銘柄として、目標株価を引き上げる

Research evidence excerpt

ルネサスエレクトロニクス: データセンタ銘柄として、目標株価を引き上げる

Japan InsightM図表13: Renesas Electronics: Our bull, base and bear case forecast

CY23 CY24 CY25 CY26 CY27

(yen billions) Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear

CY case e case e case e case e case e case e

US$/Yen Rate 135 151 150 156 156 156 155 155 155

Euro/Yen Rate 159 164 167 181 181 181 180 180 180

Net Sales 1,469.4 1,348.5 1,318.5 1,568.0 1,591.2 1,535.0 1,753.7 1,812.5 1,686.0

Automotive 660.4 702.8 639.7 713.0 719.4 700.2 752.8 770.4 725.3

Industrial / Infrastructure / IoT 799.3 636.8 671.8 847.5 864.3 827.3 993.4 1,034.7 953.2

Other 10.0 8.9 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

YoY % change

Sales (yen basis, incl. acquisition) -2% -8% -2% 19% 21% 16% 12% 14% 10%

Automotive 2% 6% -9% 11% 12% 9% 6% 7% 4%

Industrial / Infrastructure / IoT -6% -20% 5% 26% 29% 23% 17% 20% 15%

Other -15% -11% -21% 7% 7% 7% 0% 0% 0%

Non-GAAP Gross Profit 837.4 756.3 759.9 917.0 954.4 882.4 1,038.6 1,106.1 981.7

Non-GAAP Gross margin 57.0% 56.1% 57.6% 58.5% 60.0% 57.5% 59.2% 61.0% 58.2%

R&D 220.0 229.8 218.2 240.0 242.0 238.0 247.0 250.0 245.0

GAAP SG&A & other charges 115.8 128.5 154.8 167.8 169.8 165.8 171.5 174.5 169.5

Non-GAAP Operating Profit 501.6 397.9 386.9 509.2 542.6 478.6 620.1 681.6 567.2

Non-GAAP Operating margin 34.1% 29.5% 29.3% 32.5% 34.1% 31.2% 35.4% 37.6% 33.6%

Non-GAAP EBITDA 581.9 486.2 464.1 592.9 626.4 562.3 708.1 769.6 655.2

Non-GAAP EPS (yen) 243.7 201.6 182.5 225.5 240.3 211.9 275.0 302.3 251.6

Fair value (yen) 6,000 7,100 4,200

Equity market cap (yen bn) 10,885.8 12,881.5 7,620.0

Net Debt (yen bn) 87.2 56.5 113.7

Enterprise value (yen bn) 10,973.0 12,938.0 7,733.7

P/E (non-GAAP EPS) (x) 21.8 23.5 16.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.5 16.8 11.8

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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