Crude for Thought: Pre/Post Conflict Market Analysis

Research evidence excerpt

Crude for Thought: Pre/Post Conflict Market Analysis

June 18, 2026 | 19:09 ET~

Oil & Gas

Crude for Thought: Pre/Post Conflict Market Analysis Oil & Gas

Randy Ollenberger Analyst

randy.ollenberger@bmo.com (403) 515-1502

Tariq Saad, CFA Analyst

Bottom Line: tariq.saad@bmo.com (403) 515-1519

Crude oil prices continued to ease as the US and Iran signed an MOU to negotiate an Phillip Jungwirth, CFA* Analyst

end to the conflict and opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic remains well phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com (303) 436-1127

below normal levels but is expected to increase as mines are cleared and shipowners Jeremy McCrea, CFA Analyst

gain confidence in safe passage. It is important to keep in mind that it will take time jeremy.mccrea@bmo.com (403) 355-1444

for tankers that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf to reach end use markets and John Gibson, CFA Analyst

for other tankers to enter the Gulf and load, supporting oil prices. While oil prices have johng.gibson@bmo.com (403) 515-1527

eased from conflict highs, forward price expectations remain much higher than they David Lee, CFA Senior Associate

were prior to the conflict. As a result, the North American oil and gas group remains David6.lee@bmo.com (403) 355-1451

very attractively priced, in our opinion. We explore this in our Theme of the Week. Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

BMO Capital Markets Corp.*

Key Points

What's Inside

Crude Oil. Crude prices fell ~13% this week as the market embraced the US–Iran MOU Pre/Post Conflict Market Analysis

and the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move lower in paper markets continues

to exceed the physical reality, as shipping constraints and shipowner caution suggest

that a full recovery in flows will likely take several months. At the same time, a growing