Global Economic Briefing: The Global 360

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Briefing: The Global 360

Global Foundation

June 22, 2026 08:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Global 360 Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)++1 212 761-0370

Rajeev Sibal

Our views around the world. SeniorRajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.comGlobal Economist +971 4 709-7201

The recent Morgan Stanley mid-year economics outlook was titled "A Fluid Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Outlook" because of the uncertainty from both energy prices and AI. With a full Chiwoong Lee

Principal Global Economist

resolution yet to be finalized with regard to the Strait of Hormuz, and Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

resumption of oil flows expected at a gradual pace, the path of oil and read-

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

throughs for inflation and growth remains the key swing factor over the next

Arunima Sinha

several weeks. Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

The duration of the energy disruption is consequential — our base case assumes Mayank Phadke, CFA

crude back to $90/bbl at the end of the year and further declines in 2027, close to Economist

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

our oil strategists' most recent update on the oil price path. A more protracted oil

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

price dislocation would exacerbate growth and inflation risks, and a permanent risk

Priyan Mody

premium for oil would stall the return to target inflation globally. Economist

Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

Ex-energy price volatility, global growth is fundamentally supported by continued

US momentum in AI-driven capex and consumer spending. While real consumption