Global Macro Commentary: June 22: Hawkish Expectations Remain in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: June 22: Hawkish Expectations Remain in Focus

Update

June 22, 2026 10:16 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

June 22: Hawkish Expectations Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Remain in Focus Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Fed hike bets lifted USD and UST yields; US-Iran progress

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

weighed on oil; UK politics settled around Burnham; AI mega-cap Gek Teng Khoo

weakness hit indices; COP outperformed; DXY at 101.01 (+0.2%); StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

US 10y at 4.51 (+5.6bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoMarkets traded through lower oil prices as a hawkish Fed repricing pushed yields

and the dollar higher, while equity weakness was concentrated in large-cap Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

technology.

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune

Developed Markets

Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

• US rates sold off across the curve as investors continued to price a more

restrictive Fed reaction function after Chair Warsh’s debut. The move was Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Maria Chiara Russo

broad, with the belly and long end rising in similar magnitude (2y: +5bp; 10y: Strategist

+6bp; 30y: +5bp). The sell-off held even as oil prices declined, suggesting the Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

dominant impulse came from policy-rate expectations rather than the energy

channel. Treasury supply and a busy investment-grade calendar added to

duration pressure. Breakevens fell despite the nominal sell-off, led by the