Metcash Ltd FY26 result – EPS to fall for fourth consecutive year in FY27E; downgrade to Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Metcash Ltd FY26 result – EPS to fall for fourth consecutive year in FY27E; downgrade to Neutral

Bryan Raymond AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-6750 23 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Downgrade to Neutral. (1) Hardware: We expect Mitre 10 and

Total Tools to experience headwinds over the next 12 months

due to consecutive rate hikes in 2026 and the removal of negative

gearing, which is expected to see housing activity moderate in

the near term. (2) Liquor: The expansion of Liquor into the retail

space through the acquisition of Steve’s Liquor Warehouse

Group presents further sales upside to the existing wholesale

business, but the sector itself remains structurally challenged.

(3) Food: We struggle to gain conviction in the renewed retail

YTD 1m 3m 12m strategy for Food, as the sector remains highly competitive and

Abs -5.4% 2.3% 8.7% -15.7% value-focused.

Rel -7.1% 0.7% 4.4% -19.1%

Valuation

Company Data

Our Jun-27 price target of A$3.30 is derived by rolling forward

Shares O/S (mn) 968

52-week range (A$) 4.26-2.63 a $3.06 blended valuation (vs. A$3.26 previously), underpinned

Market cap ($ mn) 2,118.58 by: (1) a DCF valuation (A$3.58) (vs. A$3.52 previously); (2) a

Exchange rate 1.43 sum-of-the-parts valuation (A$2.58) (vs. A$2.98 previously);

Free float (%) 99.9%

3M ADV (mn) 7.11 and (3) a PERel valuation (A$3.03) (vs. A$3.29 previously). We

3M ADV ($ mn) 14.7 expect MTS to trade at a FY27E P/E multiple of 14.2x at our

Volatility (90 Day) 27 price target (vs. 14.1x previously).

Index ASX 100

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 8|3|1

Key Metrics (FYE Apr) Performance Drivers

A$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 17,352 17,381 17,475 17,685