BTG Upgrading to OW - Quality Franchise & Market Share Gains to Sustain Growth Through the Cycle

Research evidence excerpt

BTG Upgrading to OW - Quality Franchise & Market Share Gains to Sustain Growth Through the Cycle

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

21 June 2026

BTG ▲Overweight

Previous: Neutral

Upgrading to OW - Quality Franchise & Market Share BPAC11.SA, BPAC11 BZ

Price (19 Jun 26):R$50.64

Gains to Sustain Growth Through the Cycle ▲Price Target (Dec-27):R$66.00

Prior (Dec-26):R$61.00

We upgrade BTG to Overweight on a simple view: the franchise looks increasingly Latin American Financials

AC“all weather” and a resilient growth compounder. We see (1) continued market Yuri R Fernandes

share gains and above-industry growth even in a softer macro backdrop, (2) a (1-212) 622-3400

resilient earnings mix, and (3) incremental upside from international expansion yuri.r.fernandes@jpmorgan.com

and operating leverage. Valuation adds to the case: BTG now trades at 8.3x 2027E J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

P/E for ~20% EPS CAGR (2025–27) and 2.3x 2026E P/BV for ~25-26% ROE. Guilherme Grespan

While not as inexpensive as in Dec-24 (~1.7x P/BV / ~7x forward P/E), the (55-11) 4950-3058

guilherme.grespan@jpmorgan.com

business is also higher quality today (ROE >25% vs. ~22% back then), and we view Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

the quality + liquidity combo at this entry point as compelling. We establish our

Fernanda Sayao

Dec-27 PT at R$66/unit from R$61 Dec-26 before, implying ~35% upside, with (55-11) 4950-6588

estimates largely unchanged (still ~3% above consensus). BTG remains our fernanda.sayao@jpmchase.com

preferred name among capital markets, while we maintain our OW on XP as a Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

“cheap optionality” to lower Brazil rates at 6-7x 2026–27E P/E and potential ~13% Diego Marquez Antonio

shareholder yield (dividends/buybacks), depending on how its ~21% BIS ratio (52-55) 5339-94899