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Research evidence excerpt

JPM | FTM | Today’s Research | CEEMEA

CEEMEA Equity Research

CEEMEA First to Market 22 June 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting

Equity Strategy (Mislav Matejka, CFA)

Certain beaten down Consumer plays to show better performance in 2H

Some of the consumer sub-sectors are trying to form a bottom, trading off lows in the past weeks. Consumer was in the eye of

the storm for a while, but we think better performance for the parts of the group can continue in 2H. If one is buying into the

space, one is definitely not joining consensus. Big picture, Cyclical sectors in general are strongly outperforming again this

year, aligned with our Year Ahead call, and we think that will continue in 2H, but Consumer Cyclicals is the one area that has

struggled. Most Consumer subsectors have been weak for a long time, ever since COVID’s V-shaped move. In contrast, all

other Cyclicals had strong spells in the past few years. Given that, Consumer plays’ price relatives are generally at multi-year

lows and consumer confidence indicators in most parts of the world are near record lows. These can only go higher from here.

Historically, Consumer stocks tended to outperform from the low points in consumer confidence. In terms of the catalysts,

easing geopolitical uncertainty in 2H would be important, as it feeds into oil price and interest rates outlook. Looking at oil price,

1. UAE left OPEC; 2. Iran production is now 2-3mbd, but could be higher; 3. Venezuela backdrop has changed this year; 4.

Russia could see some improvement in 2H. Oil price was at $60 at the beginning of this year, and by this time next year there is

a chance it could be lower again. Interest rates spiked as the war started.