GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Co. Inks Centrus for HALEU Fuel Supply Across 1.2GW Ohio Campus. Reit OW, $122PT.
Research evidence excerpt
Co. Inks Centrus for HALEU Fuel Supply Across 1.2GW Ohio Campus. Reit OW, $122PT.
June 18, 2026
Valuation
We arrive at our Overweight rating and 12-month price target of $122 using a DCF model.
We have forecasted Oklo’s financials through 2035 and discounted to present day using
a 7.3% discount rate (from our previous 9.0% discount rate). We then calculated Oklo’s
terminal value using a perpetual growth model, assuming a 2% growth rate (from our
previous 1% growth rate).
Risks
Nuclear meltdown headline risk. One of the ongoing risks to OKLO shares is the risk of
a nuclear meltdown, regardless of the specific nuclear reactor technology. We believe
the Fukushima and Chernobyl nuclear incidents had the effect of swaying public opinion
against nuclear power adoption. Should another nuclear incident occur, we believe OKLO
shares would be negatively impacted. Thus, we view any potential nuclear incident as a
headline risk.
Labor force inexperienced with building such facilities. While we believe strongly in the
Oklo management team and the underlying reactor technology, we acknowledge that
there is likely a gap in the U.S. labor force that lacks experience constructing Oklo reactors.
Moreover, we believe there are risks around scaling operations quickly and ensuring
adequate levels of skilled labor are acquired. Thus, we believe there is a risk around
potential project delays that could lead to cost overruns. Any delays could push out Oklo’s
revenue ramp and, in turn, our DCF valuation.
Fuel supply. We view fuel supply as a potential risk to Oklo’s scale-up. Over the past few
years, geopolitical tensions, specifically with Russia (major global supplier of fuel), have
increased the risk of global trade, in our opinion. Moreover, we note our current thesis, in
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