Hermès (AO) | Buy | Modest Q2 acceleration and margin pressure (preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Hermès (AO) | Buy | Modest Q2 acceleration and margin pressure (preview)

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 22 June 2026

Charles-Louis Scotti

Head of Luxury Goods

+33 1 70 98 85 16

cscotti@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyHermès

France | Luxury goods Beta Profile: MCap: EUR181.7bn

Target Price: EUR2100.00 Bloomberg: RMS FP Reuters: HRMS.PA

Current Price: EUR1721.50 Free float 33%

Up/downside: 22.0% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 336.8

YTD abs performance -18.9% Market data: 19 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 2474.00/1564.00

Modest Q2 acceleration and margin pressure (preview)

Key points:

Q2 cFX sales growth seen at +6.4%, below cons. (+7.3%), with Middle East disruptions offsetting resilient demand elsewhere.

EBIT, adj. margin should decline 100bps to 40.4% amid operating deleverage on low reported growth and FX headwinds.

Stripping out Middle-East headwinds (-2/2.5pp in Q2), growth remains best-in-class in the very high-single-digit range.

H1 unlikely to be a catalyst, but we reiterate our Buy and EUR2,100 TP given attractive valuation and expected H2 reacceleration.

Reporting date 29 July 2026 (pre-market)

Conference call 29 July 2026 (9am CET / 8am UKT)

Dial in number TBA

H1 preview: limited top-line acceleration, margin under pressure (-100bps)

Hermès should publish a mixed set of H1-2026 earnings on 29 July pre-market, with only a modest sequential cFX sales growth

acceleration in Q2 (+6.4% vs. +5.6% in Q1 and consensus at +7.3%) and a 100bps contraction in the EBIT, adj. margin .

In detail, we forecast sales of EUR8,101m, up 1% reported and 6% at cFX, after factoring in c.5% FX headwinds. This is slightly

below consensus at EUR8,200m .

Further down the P&L, flattish sales growth on a reported basis should result in some fixed-cost under-absorption, which,