Coty (1K) | Hold | FY 2026 derisked, FY 2027 cautious (preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Coty (1K) | Hold | FY 2026 derisked, FY 2027 cautious (preview)

#EarningsPreview #Negative #TPchange #FlashReport

Release date: 22 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldCoty

United States | Personal care Beta Profile: MCap: EUR1.5bn

Target Price: EUR1.80 (2.00) Change in TP: -10.0 % Bloomberg: COTY FP Reuters: COTY.PA

Current Price: EUR1.68 Change in Sales: none 26E/-2.0% 27E Free float 43%

Up/downside: 7.1% Change in Adj EBIT: -1.9% 26E/-2.8% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 17.3

YTD abs performance -37.3% Market data: 19 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -29.2% 26E/-7.2% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 4.50/1.65

FY 2026 derisked, FY 2027 cautious (preview) Price performance

Why this report?

We believe the Q4 guidance is largely derisked, supported by resilient beauty

demand and continued strength in fragrances. While sell-out trends should

gradually improve under the Coty. Curated strategy, we expect only a limited

benefit in FY27, with a relatively light innovation pipeline and a still

competitive market likely leading to cautious management guidance. We cut

our sales and EBIT forecasts by 2% over 2026-28 and lower our TP to EUR1.8.

Despite a depressed valuation, we maintain our Hold rating given continued

operational underperformance, execution risks and elevated leverage. A

break-up scenario involving the sale of licences or core brands remains the

only upside catalyst, although it does not appear to be under consideration.

Key findings FY to 30/06 (USD) 06/26E 06/27E 06/28E

Coty will publish its FY26 earnings in mid-August. We believe the Q4 guidance Sales 5,716 5,714 5,848

(MSD LFL decline, gross margin down 100-200bps, EBITDA, adj. of USD85-95m, EBITDA adj. 844 867 913

EPS, adj. ex-swap -USD0.02 to USD0.00, and breakeven FCF) is largely derisked. EBIT adj. 615 648 705