Wacker Chemie Q2 Preview - Disruption-Driven Upside Fading

Research evidence excerpt

Wacker Chemie Q2 Preview - Disruption-Driven Upside Fading

EUROPE | Chemicals

Wacker Chemie EquityJuneResearch17, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEWacker Chemie Q2 Preview - Disruption-

RATING HOLDDriven Upside Fading

PRICE €95.70^

We make limited EBITDA changes, but reduce our target price to €93,

reiterating our HOLD rating. Short-term disruption supported pricing and PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €93.00 (€96.00) | -3%

pull-forward, but demand is weakening and H2 risk is building. Section 232 52W HIGH-LOW €105.60 - €58.85

remains the key swing factor. We forecast Q2 EBITDA of €171mn (-7% vs FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 34.7% | 9.96

VA cons €184mn) and remain 6% below consensus on average across the MARKET CAP €4.8B | $5.5B

next three years. TICKER WCH GR ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Operationally, Iran-related disruption tightened Asian supply and curtailed Chinese exports into

Europe, supporting near-term pricing and driving order pull-forward. However, the sustainability

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

of demand is already in question: volumes have rolled over from peak levels, with April orders

2026 2027 2026 2027

below March and "back at the level of January and February". With higher energy and feedstock

costs now feeding through, we see an increasing risk of demand softening into H2. We forecast REV <-1% <-1% -1% -2%

Q2 EBITDA of €171mn (-7% vs VA cons €184mn) and remain 6% below consensus on average EPS +39% +280% -257% -89%

across the next three years.

2026 (€) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Catalyst: The key near-term catalyst remains the US Section 232 investigation into polysilicon EPS (0.38) (0.48) (0.91) 1.27 (0.69)

and derivative imports. A robust outcome restricting Chinese (or Chinese-affiliated) supply PREV (1.14)