Nantucket Recap: El Nino Tailwind, Confidence In Pricing Power, Urea Hedging

Research evidence excerpt

Nantucket Recap: El Nino Tailwind, Confidence In Pricing Power, Urea Hedging

USA | Hardlines

Scotts Miracle-Gro EquityJuneResearch17, 2026

FLASH NOTENantucket Recap: El Nino Tailwind, Confidence

RATING BUYIn Pricing Power, Urea Hedging

PRICE $63.08^

We hosted SMG management at our Nantucket Consumer Conference and

came away viewing the lower-bound of +MSD% branded POS remains PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $79.00 | +25%

achievable in F'26, proactive commodity sourcing will keep the gross margin 52W HIGH-LOW $72.35 - $52.00

expansion story on-track in F'27, and management is pursuing a thoughtful FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 75.2% | 59.85

approach to elevated pricing next year that should minimize elasticity. Reiterate MARKET CAP $3.7B

Buy. TICKER SMG ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Management Presented A Compelling Plan To Activate Younger Households. While the Baby

Boomer generation has largely engaged in lawn & garden for utility, customer insights data analyzed

by SMG leadership reveals Millennials & Gen Z have a propensity to participate for other reasons,

including dedicated time to ‘disconnect’. Management acknowledges that there is a contingent

of the younger generation that's adverse to big brands, but that cohort is small. Encouragingly,

management is being tactical here with tuck-in M&A of niche brands like Black Cow and Murphy's

Naturals, both of which SMG has an option to own outright down the road. The bigger opportunity

though, are Millennials & Gen Z'ers who seek trusted brands with products safe for kids & pets.

Miracle Gro Organic Soils grew from $0 to $200M over two years, and the internally-developed O.M.

Scott & Son brand is off to a great start as well.

Upbeat View Of Recent Trends.