Where Is the Wind Blowing? - Analysis of Upcoming Offshore Wind Auctions

Research evidence excerpt

Where Is the Wind Blowing? - Analysis of Upcoming Offshore Wind Auctions

ence pricing; (2)

Developer's risk to any grid connection delays; (3) political stability; (4) scale of the market, and

(5) ease of access to it (e.g., requirements for local supply content, and/or need for local JVs).

Upcoming offshore wind tenders in Denmark/UK/NL/Poland appear most attractive to us.

We are positive on the current Danish auction, the upcoming UK auctions, and the expected

auctions in the Netherlands and Poland. We forecast ~10GW of tenders in these markets in

2026 and 12GW in 2027.

We see the ~7 GW of auctions in APAC as less appealing. Existing revenue support in Taiwan

and the lack of visibility on CfDs in Australia weigh on these markets, in our assessment. We

also believe the South Korean market does not offer an attractive PPA level, given developer

requirements and market challenges. In our view, value creation remains limited in APAC, and

we expect global developers to prioritize developed European markets.

We expect Ørsted (Hold) and RWE (Buy) to be the main beneficiaries of upcoming European

offshore tenders. We expect the companies to participate in the Danish and Dutch auctions

and believe Ørsted and RWE are well-positioned to succeed. We also believe RWE has ~4.2

GW of attractive projects that could be eligible for the upcoming AR8 auction. We view Ørsted

as the leading non-Polish developer positioned to benefit from future Polish auctions, provided

the company can expand its current JV beyond the Baltica 2 and 3 projects.

The German market remains a wildcard, in our opinion. The industry expects the adoption of a

CfD regime, but policy changes remain outstanding. We would prefer greater certainty before

viewing the German offshore market as more attractive.