India: Forget the rains, we need a thermometer instead Latest op-ed published in the Mint

Research evidence excerpt

India: Forget the rains, we need a thermometer instead Latest op-ed published in the Mint

19 June 2026

India: Forget the rains, we need Economics

a thermometer instead

Latest op-ed published in the Mint India

◆ Analysis shows that temperature levels impact India’s food inflation and output Pranjul Bhandari

more than rainfall, especially in El Niño years ChiefEconomist/Strategist,India ASEAN

Economist

The Hongkong and Shanghai

Banking Corporation Limited,

Over the last decade, we have been steadily refining our understanding of the impact of weather on the Singapore Branch pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.com.sg

economy. Our latest findings suggest that it’s time to get prepared for rising inflation and softening growth. +65 6658 4976

A couple of years ago, we pointed out that reservoir levels matter more than rains for India’s food

production and inflation as they capture underground water as well.

More recently, we advanced our analysis from rains and reservoirs to temperatures. With global warming,

average temperatures have crossed previous thresholds. As we explain later, they now impact the broader

food basket and inflation much more than even rains and reservoirs do. In fact, we find that tracking

surface temperature is enough to get a good sense of where food inflation is headed. We don’t even need

to track rains in most parts of India anymore.

As a result, we extend our work on surface temperatures mattering more than before to understanding

what happens specifically in El Niño years. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration in the US have not just announced an El Niño is forming; they have also assigned a 63%

probability that it will be a ‘very strong’ El Niño (the highest classification, with surface temperatures in the