Quick Note - Malaysia palm oil - High stocks, weak exports a headwind for CPO price

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Note - Malaysia palm oil - High stocks, weak exports a headwind for CPO price

Global Markets Research

10 June 2026Malaysia palm oil

EQUITY: AGRI-RELATED

High stocks, weak exports a headwind for CPO price Research Analysts

ASEAN Agri-Related

Raghavendra Divekar, CFA - NSMQuick Note raghavendra.divekar@nomura.com

+603 2027 6893

Inventory levels rise on weaker-than-expected exports

Research AssociatesOn 10 June 2026, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released palm oil statistics for May

2026. Palm oil inventory (crude + processed) rose 5.2% m-m to 2.43mn MT in May, 2.9% ASEAN Agri-Related

above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.36mn MT. This marks the second straight Amol Dongre - NSFSPL

increase in inventory levels after three consecutive months of a decline, with the inventory level

now 27% above the average level. The increase came largely from processed palm oil, the

inventory of which rose 9.5% m-m, while crude palm oil (CPO) inventory also rose 1.6% m-m.

CPO production surprisingly declined 7.0% m-m to 1.52mn MT, coming in 2.2% lower than

the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.55mn MT. For June, we expect production to

resume its rise m-m to ~1.65mn MT. The overall increase in inventory levels was largely due to

a 14.5% m-m decline in exports to 1.11mn MT in May, coming in 9.4% lower than the

Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.22mn MT. Going forward, we expect CPO exports to

rise over 15% m-m to ~1.30mn MT and, overall, we expect June inventory levels to rise m-

m to over 2.45mn MT. Spot CPO prices have declined about 1.6% over the past month to

MYR4,442/MT, as the elevated crude oil prices have been balanced by weaker exports. With

the conflict in West Asia continuing and with Indonesia increasing its biodiesel mandate from