Mid-Quarter Update: Soft 2Q'26 Guide, but Likely a Timing Issue

Research evidence excerpt

Mid-Quarter Update: Soft 2Q'26 Guide, but Likely a Timing Issue

ar to 1Q as higher shipments are

ND/EBITDA 1.6x 0.6x 0.0x

expected to be offset by nonferrous unrealized hedging losses.

Consensus Estimates

Aluminum Rolling Mill Update: Aluminum rolling mill earnings are expected to

2025A 2026E 2027Eimprove significantly q/q, driven higher by an increase in shipments and higher realized

prices. This is consistent with our expectations. Commissioning continues to progress, EPS $16.21 $18.30

with two of the three cold mills now operational, and the third cold mill expected Valuation

to begin qualifying material in July. Further, the first of two CASH lines (auto sheet) 2025A 2026E 2027E

is operating and shipping material for customer qualification, with the second line EV/EBITDA 20.2x 11.5x 10.5x

expected to begin material qualifications during 4Q'26. Steel Dynamics flagged asset

P/E 33.8x 18.6x 18.1x

write-down associated with the decision to relocate the company's planned second

satellite recycled slab center from Arizona to Columbus. QTR. EBITDA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2025A $448 $533 $664 $505Outlook Commentary: As is typical, no specific outlook commentary other than STLD

flagging demand remains strong across several key end markets. Fabrication order 2026E $700a $885 $1,009 $978

backlog is ~40% higher y/y and extends into 2027, implying shipments are likely to 2027E $985 $948 $902 $877

trend higher. Looking to 3Q'26, in our view earnings will improve sequentially on higher

lagged sheet prices somewhat offset by higher input costs, with STLD also positioned to

benefit from the continued ramp-up of the aluminum rolling mill. As a reference, our/

consensus 3Q'26 EBITDA estimates currently are $1,009m/$1,113m.

Key Changes

Estimates Q2 / 26E 2026E

Revenue $5,599 $22,248 Our Thesis