BMO Research Today - June 17, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Research Today - June 17, 2026

SECTOR UPDATES

BMO Global Commodities Research

Helen Amos

Aluminium's Elastic Supply Undermines Big Dreams

• Aluminium prices have corrected sharply on the news of a US-Iran deal, with a lot of speculative

length likely shaken out. But prices had already started to lose steam from early June with

recovering utilisation rates in the Middle East and a supply response from Asia capping prices before

they could get to demand destruction levels.

• This "elastic supply" behaviour is ultimately what has kept previous major forays away from the cost

curve relatively brief. While tightening electricity markets in aggregate may push aluminium cost

curves higher, this is unlikely to create sufficient entry barriers given most new aluminium capacity

comes with captive power.

• With China's offshore capacity ramping quickly and entering in the low end of the cost curve, we

think aluminium prices now underperform copper again, trending back sustainably above 4:1 even if

the pathway to full Strait reopening is prolonged.

ETF

David Cheng

ETFs - 2026 ICI ETF Conference Takeaways

• We attended the 2026 ICI ETF Conference in Nashville from June 8 to 10. The Investment Company

Institute (ICI) is a trade association that primarily focuses on the U.S. asset management industry. It

works with regulators to promote robust policies and publishes research and educational content for

asset managers and individual investors.

• Discussion in this year’s conference included updates on ETF share class conversions in the U.S.,

tokenization of ETFs, distribution trends and statistics, and a panel dedicated to recent developments

within the Canadian ETF industry. We highlight the key takeaways from the panels in this report.

Commodities Daily

BMO Metals Brief