EMEA Paper & Packaging JPM Industrials Conference Feedback: Smurfit WestRock, Mondi and International Paper

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Paper & Packaging JPM Industrials Conference Feedback: Smurfit WestRock, Mondi and International Paper

our view, the

information from the conference confirmed our bullish stance on the stock and the

company remains our top pick in the sector.

• Mondi: Consistent with our take on the market above, Mondi re-iterated that

containerboard/box demand was still solid but there is evidence that there was pre-buying

ahead of the testliner price increases. While corrugated price/cost dynamics are still

positive, higher fuel and energy prices are causing some cost inflation in less well tracked

raw materials such as wood in Central and Eastern Europe. While kraftliner supply/

demand is still tight, the over-supply in testliner market likely limits the ability of Mondi

to push for further price increases to cover off this incremental inflation. Sack kraft and

kraft paper markets remain tight and they are continuing to pass on cost inflation

experienced within these grades but, given contract term lengths, price offsets take longer

to realise than in the corrugated business. The profitability of their recent projects is

tracking below their expectations (unsurprisingly) but Mondi still believes in the rational

and long term viability of these projects on a through-cycle basis. Over the nearer term,

Mondi continues to look after its balance sheet through lower dividends and capex. As

re-iterated at its Q1’26 call, Mondi is comfortable that current capex levels do not hinder

the asset base. Liquidity is also adequately managed.

• International Paper (Europe). While International Paper was somewhat constrained in

what they were allowed/not allowed to say on the European business (DS Smith), they

echoed peer company sentiment on demand, supply and price trends. Tim and Vincent