Global Equity Strategy "Quantitative Framework and Positioning for Regio..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Equity Strategy "Quantitative Framework and Positioning for Regio..."

Global Research

19 June 2026ab

Global Equity Strategy Equity Strategy

GlobalQuantitative Framework and Positioning for

Regions and Sectors Marc el Koussa

Strategist

marc.el-koussa@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0298

Each month, we update the three key parts of our Quantitative framework: Andrew Garthwaite

andrew.garthwaite@ubs.com1) Scorecards − Our individual scorecards rank sectors based on valuations, sensitivity

+44-20-7567 4343

to our UBS macro scenario, earnings momentum, price momentum (where extreme),

positioning and quality fundamentals. The composite scorecard combines all these Sean Simonds

factors into one overall score. Strategist

sean.simonds@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2851

2) Earnings versus Trend − We look at the EPS versus trend to evaluate one element of

Shreyas Guntur

earnings risk as well as the fit with trend.

shreyas.guntur@ubs.com

3) Machine Learning − This looks at which macro variables are the most important to +44-20-7567 0886

the relative sector returns by refitting and training a machine learning model on a three-

month rolling basis. The variables we look at are largely daily macro proxies (such as 2-10

Yield Curve, Hard Data, AI Narrative, China Proxy, Soft Data, US 10y breakeven and US

10y real yield) and are supplied by Sean Simonds (see Tactical Dashboard). This

quantitative framework constitutes only one part of our overall weightings analysis.

Regions:

EM remains at the top of our aggregate regional scorecard. It ranks top on our

economic momentum and valuation scorecards. It is the biggest beneficiary of our near-

term macro scenario (rising markets, flat bond yields and inflation expectations, weaker

dollar, rising ISM and PMIs).