Channel checks: Trucks "Not a truck upcycle yet but demand strong enough..."

Research evidence excerpt

Channel checks: Trucks "Not a truck upcycle yet but demand strong enough..."

Global Research

19 June 2026ab

Channel checks: Trucks Equities

AmericasNot a truck upcycle yet but demand strong

enough to drive price increases Industrial Equipment

Steven Fisher, CFA

Analyst

steven.fisher@ubs.com

Channel check: Orders likely to be weak in 1H 2027, unless demand improves +1-212-713 8634

Last week we hosted an expert call with the president of a large truck rental and leasing Avinatan Jaroslawicz

company in North America alongside our European Capital Goods analyst Hemal Analyst

Bhundia (see replay here). Key takeaways: avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1405

Near-term improvement remains supply driven: Smaller carriers exiting the

market is tightening driver supply and supporting freight rates, but there hasn't Judah Aronovitz

been much improvement in freight demand (maybe a bit), which is needed to drive Associate Analyst

judah.aronovitz@ubs.com

a stronger upcycle.

+1-212-713-4881

Replacement demand constrained by excess capacity: Fleets have some Lauren Sullivan

excess capacity due to strong post COVID buying, and truck ages are not as old as Associate Analyst

in prior periods, limiting replacement activity. lauren.sullivan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8230

EPA 2027 clarity (on warranty provision) could come by end of month.

OEMs have not set prices for 2027 orders as they are waiting to see what the

market will look like. The expert expects an ~$8-10k increase for heavy-duty and

~$6-8k for medium-duty trucks.

Orders likely to slow in 1H 2027: There are still some OEM build slots available

for 2026, but once they are sold out, orders are expected to slow materially

through 1H 2027. 4Q26 slots appear largely filled (expect to be sold out in July/

August).