Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 110" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 110" Patricot

Powered by Lab Global19 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 110

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

US-Iran MoU formally signed; some uncertainty remains Analyst

US President Donald Trump formally signed the MoU with Iran yesterday (link) and the henri.patricot@ubs.com

US released the 14-point document (link). This initiates a 60-day negotiation over Iran's +33-14-888 3033

nuclear programme, which is extendable. Per the MoU, Iran will allow free commercial Nayoung Kim

ship passage during talks, with traffic expected to resume within 30 days after technical Analyst

and military obstacles are cleared. The US has also granted a sanction waiver, enabling nayoung.kim@ubs.com

Iran to restart oil exports immediately. US Centcom confirmed on Thursday that it has +44-20-7568 4010

lifted the blockade on Iran (link). Three Saudi VLCCs carrying 6M bbls have reportedly Joshua Stone

crossed the Strait on Thursday (link) but uncertainty remains around the pace of of Analyst

ramp-up and potential toll after the 60-day period. Iran committed not to charge for joshua.stone@ubs.com

passage via Hormuz for 60 days only. +44-20-7901 5588

Josh Silverstein

Flows had dropped yesterday Analyst

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) shows that Gulf traffic had declined josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

on Wednesday, with only one LPG carrier entering (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). June averages 2.5 tanker

crossings daily, below the April-May average of ~3, and significantly lower than Tom Allen

February's daily average of ~50 crossings. June exports average 0.8Mboe/d, down from Analyst