Iran disruption tracker #75: worst of oil correction looks over for now; what about products?

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #75: worst of oil correction looks over for now; what about products?

June 17, 2026

Summary Day 106

What changed today vs yesterday

●The 14 point terms have seemingly been leaked. For now momentum towards a signing on June seems to be

the base case. Despite POTUS insistence that the bullet points are being misrepresented, we nevertheless list

what press reports suggest is the final draft. From our standpoint, there isn't a lot there that the market probably

did not already know.

●U.S. urging restraint beyond Iran: President Trump indicated at the G7 that Israel's Prime Minister needed to act

"more responsibly in Lebanon," suggesting Washington is seeking to prevent the Iran de-escalation track from

being undermined by renewed tensions on Israel's northern border.

●Iran signaling hard-line regional positions: Iran's top negotiator, Qalibaf, reiterated that Israel must withdraw

from occupied areas in Lebanon, indicating that broader geopolitical flashpoints remain unresolved despite

progress on the US-Iran track.

●Middle East crude risk premium evaporating: Dubai and Murban curves flipped into contango for the first time

since the war began, signaling easing concerns over prompt regional supply. Dubai Jul/Aug moved from a peak

backwardation of +$13/bbl in March to slight contango.

●Physical market normalization accelerating: Dubai physical differentials turned negative (-$0.33/bbl) for the first

time since early 2026, versus an extreme +$65/bbl premium in mid-March, highlighting the collapse in geopolitical

scarcity pricing.

●Qatar preparing for LNG restart: QatarEnergy has reportedly told customers it could restore ~50% of LNG output

within one month of safe passage through Hormuz and ~80% within two months, underscoring confidence that