Pending Home Sales: PHS Index +3.8% MoM, +4.8% YoY

Research evidence excerpt

Pending Home Sales: PHS Index +3.8% MoM, +4.8% YoY

Homebuilders & Building Products

June 17, 2026

Pending Home Sales: PHS Index +3.8% MoM, +4.8% YoY Exhibit 1 - 2 Year Pending

Home Sales

80 10%

8%The Wolfe Byte 7978 6%

77 4%

2%May PHS increased +3.8% MoM to 76.8, which was better than the +0.8% 7675 0%

74 -2%

-4%Consensus expectation. Click here for our PHS downloadable dataset. 7372 -6%

71 -8%

70 -10%

PHS YoY % ChangeThe May Pending Home Sales Index increased +3.8% sequentially and +4.8% YoY.

PHS have improved sequentially each month in ’26. On an absolute basis, the PHS Source: Wolfe Research, NAR

Index is at its highest level since November ’25 (77.2) with May +4.4% above the

73.6 ’25 average. Appreciating mortgage rates averaged ~6.4% in May compared

to ~6.3% in April and ~6.1% in January, we obviously view improved resale activity

favorably as existing home demand is not being driven by mortgage rate buydowns.

Trevor Allinson, CFA

PHS is a leading Indicator of Existing Home Sales. The correlation (starting Jan '10) tallinson@wolferesearch.com(636) 338-1466

between EHS YoY % change and PHS YoY % change (leading by one month) is 88%, View Trevor’s Research

which suggests some sequential improvement on a seasonally adjusted basis in the View Comp Table

Download PHS Datacoming months. See page 2 for PHS Charts.

Paul Przybylski

pprzybylski@wolferesearch.com

Not Seasonally Adjusted PHS increased +2.1% YoY and +1.2% MoM, which is (636) 338-1465

generally in-line with the +1.3% May sequential historical average improvement.

PHS have remained in a 71.2-to-78.1 range since March ’23, in part, due to soft

consumer confidence, rate lock and increasing difficulty in selling existing residences

for the desired price.