Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #189

Research evidence excerpt

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #189

Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace - Market Overweight

AEROSPACE June 17, 2026

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & TICKER RTG PT % UP

ATI OP $171 (12.9%)Flight Activity #189

BA OP $275 20.9%

CR OP $225 8.7%

The Wolfe Byte EMBJ OP $83 38.5%

Counting Contrails is our weekly look at global flight schedules & actual flight FTAI OP $346 28.9%

activity dissected by aircraft/engine type and region of flight. This week: capacity GE OP $360 2.4%

HEI PP NA NA

(flown & scheduled) remains under pressure; GTF AoGs back to early 2025 levels. HWM OP $300 8.1%

HXL OP $101 2.7%

RTX OP $235 25.8%

Global Scheduled Capacity Update SARO OP $35 30.5%

June scheduled capacity is now tracking down 1.1% y/y following ~30bps of w/ TDG OP $1,745 34.1%

w trims (APAC down another 60bps on continued cuts in China Dom which saw VSEC OP $255 28.1%

160bps removed...tracking down 2-3% for 2nd month in a row while ME saw 50bps WWD OP $425 0.8% OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform,

trimmed). 2Q scheduled capacity is down 1.6% y/y (ME down 30%, APAC down UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

1% due to China Dom and NA flattish) vs. 1Q's +4% (actual 1Q flown capacity

growth closer to 2%). July capacity was trimmed 40bps w/w and is pointing to 1.7%

growth while Aug/Sep saw limited changes (+2.1% and +4.4% respectively) with

3Q schedules all in at 2.7% growth. NB capacity is set to grow 0%/4% in 2Q/3Q

while WB capacity growth is -4%/1%.

Myles Walton, PhD, CFA

Actual Flown Capacity (Total & by Route) mwalton@wolferesearch.com

June flown capacity (as of 6/14) is -2.3% which is down 20bps w/w. While ME- (617) 675-6840 View Myles’s Research

exposed routes lead y/y capacity declines, we are also seeing declines in key View Comp Table