Arctic: Energy Daily - EQNR, RIG, PEN, KMAR, SUBC, ++

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Energy Daily - EQNR, RIG, PEN, KMAR, SUBC, ++

expect consensus production estimates to move higher following the update, supporting both NAV

upgrades and potential multiple expansion. We have implemented positive operational revisions to

our model, primarily reflecting higher NCS production assumptions, partly offset by lower near-term

commodity price forecasts. Equinor currently trades on 2026e/2027e P/E multiples of 6.5x/8.3x,

offers FCF yields of 15%/11%, and provides a combined dividend and buyback yield of 8.2%/9.1%.

In our view, these valuation metrics leave room for a 15–20% re-rating as the oil market normalizes

(ARCe long-term Brent assumption USD 80/bbl) and the market gains confidence in the company's

updated outlook and capital return profile.

Transocean (Buy, USD 6.8): Secured more work for HE semis, solid dayrate for rig offshoreNorway

Announced two harsh-environment contract awards, adding a combined USD 185m of backlog

and an estimated 390 days of work. The Transocean Norge (2018-built HE semi) was awarded a

five-well contract with Harbour Energy offshore Norway, expected to commence in Q1/28 in direct

continuation of the rig’s current program. The total contract value of USD 149m (excl. mobilization

and additional services) over an estimated 300 days, implying a solid dayrate of ~USD 497kpd. In

addition, the Transocean Equinox (2015-built MW HE semi) was awarded a two-well contract with

Santos offshore Australia, expected to commence in Q2/27 and last 90 days, implying one quarter

of downtime. The contract adds USD 36m of backlog at an implied dayrate of USD 400kpd. Overall,

the fixtures are in line with our expectations, and remain supportive for continued deleveraging and