PTT Exploration: New lower oil price forecast

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PTT Exploration: New lower oil price forecast

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PTT Exploration

New lower oil price forecast

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 155.00 THB | Price: 134.50 THB

PO cut by 8.3% to Bt155 19 June 2026

We cut our PO by 8.3% to Bt155/share to reflect BofA Global Research’s lower oil price Equity

assumptions, driven by the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), which cut our

NPAT forecast. Our 2026 NPAT estimate is cut by 18% to Bt78.2bn (consensus estimate

Key Changesat Bt75.2bn) as we adopted the new Brent price benchmark of US$82/bbl, which

dropped from US$92.5/bbl. For 2027, our NPAT estimate was taken down by 16% to (Bt) Previous Current

Bt72.9bn (against consensus estimate at Bt69.3bn) to reflect the Brent price benchmark Price Obj. 169.00 155.00

cut (-11%) from US$78.3/bbl to US$70.0/bbl. We lowered our long-term Brent price 2026E EPS 23.89 19.71

assumption from US$75/bbl to US$70/bbl, which is in alignment with the Brent price 2027E EPS 21.98 18.37

forward curve where the long-term Brent oil price shifted down from US$75/bbl to 2028E EPS 22.23 20.14

US$70-71/bbl. Against these backdrops, our PO dropped by 8.3% to Bt155/share. We 2026E EBITDA (m) 249,219.8 221,579.6

continue to deem PTTEP as one of the best energy companies with disciplined capital 2027E EBITDA (m) 231,298.7 210,481.7

allocation, strong operating cash flow, and high dividend yield. Our oil price forecast, 2028E EBITDA (m) 240,756.1 230,500.0

which is higher than the pre-conflict level (US$64/bbl in 4Q25), along with well-

controlled unit cost, should allow PTTEP to generate healthy free cash flow. This in turn Komsun Suksumrun ^^^

Research Analyst

should allow PTTEP to maintain high cash returns to shareholders or give it the option to Kiatnakin Phatra Securities