India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Remains weak

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India Watch: Monsoon Tracker: Remains weak

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India Watch

Monsoon Tracker: Remains weak

SW Monsoon advancement weak, 40% below normal 19 June 2026

As we end the third week of 2026 southwest monsoon season, advancement of rainfall GEM Economics

has been weak so far. With cumulative all-India rainfall at 40% below normal between 1- Asia | India

18 June. After onset of rainfall over Kerala on June 4, the intensity of rainfall picked up Rahul Bajoria

but did not sustain for long (cumulative rainfall in Southern India till week 2 was merely India & ASEAN Economist

3% above normal). With the monsoon still hovering over parts of Southern and Eastern BofAS+91 22India6632 3095

India, Central India continues to remain under a dry spell (63% below normal). In the rahul.bajoria@bofa.com

coming week, Southwest monsoon is likely to advance into some more parts of Smriti Mehra

Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand & Bihar, and some parts of Chhattisgarh. According to IndiaBofASEconomistIndia

IMD, isolated heavy rainfall is expected over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West +91 22 6632 8314

smriti.mehra@bofa.com

Bengal & Sikkim and Bihar in the next week. Meanwhile, it was widely reported in the

media that the onset of monsoon over Mumbai will be delayed by another week (which

was earlier supposed to hit the city on June 10), likely to enter the city after 24 June. Glossary

Recent NOAA forecast predicts 86% chance of weak El Niño conditions in May-Jun-Jul &

CPI: Consumer price index

63% chance of “very strong” El Niño in Nov-Dec-Jan.

IMD: Indian meteorological department

Central India in a dry spell; slight progress in Northwest WPI: Wholesale Price Index

Spatial distribution suggests that all the regions saw below-normal rainfall in the third

yoy: Year over Yearweek of June.