Arctic: Boliden - Substantial organic growth set-up

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Boliden - Substantial organic growth set-up

Boliden Buy Hold

BOL SS | Materials | Initiation of Coverage | 16 June 2026 | 05:56 Sell

Substantial organic growth set-up Financials and estimates changes Target SEK 660.00

We believe Boliden is set-up for an extraordinary period with around 40% organic earnings Key Figures (SEKm) Dec-25 Dec-26e Dec-27e Dec-28e Dec-29e Highlights

growth over the next two years, consistng of 1) restart of Garpenberg, 2) significantly Recommendation Buy

Revenue 93,508.0 126,631.2 172,287.1 172,917.1 Target Price SEK 660.00

improving copper/gold grades, and 3) valuable ramp-ups in the Odda and Rönnskär

EBITDA 9,601.0 13,901.1 27,884.0 24,240.5 Share Price SEK 571.4

Smelters. We consider a limited part of this growth to be discounted, which to us creates EBIT 821.0 3,468.1 17,963.4 13,874.7 Upside (%) 15.5

an attractive equity investment case. We initiate coverage on Boliden with a Buy rating and EPS 33.10 47.14 52.52 61.92 Market cap (SEKm) 162,406

SEK 660 target price. Adj. EBITDA 24,469.0 29,668.6 30,287.0 34,143.1 Enterprise Value (SEKm) 161,752

Adj. EBITDA margin (%) 26.2 23.4 17.6 19.7 Number of shares (SEKm) 284

Upside surprise lineup for H2 2026

Adj. EPS 33.10 47.14 52.52 61.92

The second quarter of 2026 will be heavily impacted by the Garpenberg mine standstill along with 12 months share price performance: Revenue growth (%) 4.8 35.4 36.1 0.4

higher costs and maintenance outages. That said, we see a strong earnings rebound already in

EPS growth (%) (9.7) 42.4 11.4 17.9 950 PerformanceBOL SS (%) -6.3%3M 20.0%6M 99.4%1Y

OMX -8.4% 17.3% 94.9%H2 as limited Garpenberg volumes are delivered in combination with Odda ramping up and as Aitik 900

copper/gold grades improving. Our H2 EBIT is close to 20% ahead of Bloomberg consensus.