Transport Tracker: Issue #1234, week ending June 17: FedEx and FedEx Freight report next week

Research evidence excerpt

Transport Tracker: Issue #1234, week ending June 17: FedEx and FedEx Freight report next week

Accessible version

Transport Tracker

Issue #1234, week ending June 17: FedEx

and FedEx Freight report next week

Industry Overview

Hoexter’s Thought of the Week 17 June 2026

FedEx Preview: pricing momentum and volume discipline Equity

United StatesFedEx (FDX) reports F4Q26 results on Tuesday, June 23. We expect F4Q26 EPS of $5.95,

Transport/Infrastructure

in line with Street’s $5.97, and near the high end of FedEx’s implied F4Q26 range of

$5.39 -$6.19. At our 33rd annual BofA Industrials, Transportation, & Airlines Key

Leaders Conference in May (see Conf note), FedEx reiterated its annual target for Adj

EPS of $19.30-$20.10 on April 13 (concurrent with its announcement that CFO John

Dietrich was leaving (see CFO note)). We estimate Federal Express Corp Revenues of

$20.6 bil, up 8.3% year-year, led by a 1.8% increase in average daily volume, and +6.2%

growth in yields. At our conference, FedEx noted pricing momentum has accelerated

(yields up 2% in F1Q, 4% in F2Q, and ~6% in F3Q), with FDX expecting continued

strength into F4Q. The company changed its sales incentives to prioritize B2B growth.

It noted growth rates include fuel, but that a majority of yield growth was due to base

rate improvements. FedEx is intentionally reducing lower-quality volume, with ground

economy (low-yield B2C) down in 4Q, as it reallocates capacity to higher margin B2B

and premium B2C segments. We estimate F4Q26 FEC operating margin of 9.2%, up Ken Hoexter

130 bps sequentially, just slightly lower than last year’s 160 bps 3Q-4Q sequential Research Analyst

BofAS

increase, given F3Q26 was up 50 bps year-year, and we expect a 20 bps increase year- +1 646 855 1498