EEMEA Oil & Gas: Lowering 2026E-27E Brent forecasts with Hormuz reopening

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EEMEA Oil & Gas: Lowering 2026E-27E Brent forecasts with Hormuz reopening

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EEMEA Oil & Gas

Lowering 2026E-27E Brent forecasts with

Hormuz reopening

Price Objective Change

2026E-27E Brent forecasts cut to US$82/70/bbl 18 June 2026

BofA Global Research commodity team has cut its 2026E Brent forecast to US$82/bbl Equity

from US$93/bbl driven by a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Emerging Market Europe

Hormuz leading to a deficit of 2.7mb/d in 3Q followed by a balanced market in 4Q26 Oil & Gas

(see Global Energy Weekly: Oil gets the memo report). The team has also cut its 2027E Sashank Lanka >>

Brent forecast to US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl with a surplus of 1.1mb/d forecast during Research Analyst

the year. We hence cut our FY26E-27E EBITDA for Aramco (Buy) and ADNOC Gas (Buy) Merrill+971 4Lynch425 8231(DIFC)

by 9% on average while for Sasol (Neutral) we cut our FY27E (June-end) EBITDA by sashank.lanka@bofa.com

c.20%. Despite lower oil price forecasts, our Buy investment thesis for Aramco and Abhishek Kumar >>

Research Analyst

ADNOC Gas remains intact given their defensive positioning. We reiterate our Neutral Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

rating on Sasol. +971 4 425 8227

abhishek.kumar29@bofa.com

Aramco: defensive positioning to remain in focus

We believe having the lowest-cost barrels along with a robust balance sheet (FY26E

gearing: 1.7%) will help support capex in both upstream and downstream, pay dividends

of c.US$87.6bn in FY26E (based on BofAe) while maintaining the optionality to increase

production as the Strait reopens. We forecast production of 9/mb/d in FY26E. Every 1

mb/d increase in production impacts net income positively by 9% (see Exhibit 11 for

sensitivity analysis). On the back of lower oil prices, we cut our FY26E-27E EBITDA on