Medical Technology

Research evidence excerpt

Medical Technology

Spine Market Model

Historical reports from industry publications, historical data from Medtronic, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Not Rated), Orthofix (OFIX,

Not Rated), ATEC, Xtant Medical (XTNT, Buy, $1 PT) and GMED, and insights from Consensus models form the basis of our marketMEDICAL model. To arrive at our estimates, we leveraged consensus figures, as well as carried forward historical trends to arrive at our

overall spine market revenue estimates. We walk through the details of our assumptions below.

Our Spine Market Model assumes that WW revenue (CC) will grow at an LSD 5-year CAGR from 2025 to 2030. In our model,

historical metrics are pulled directly from respective company filings. On a forward basis, we leveraged Consensus estimates

where provided. In outer years when Consensus Dara were not available, we projected growth based on an estimated Y/Y

growth rate determined by the historical performance per company. 'All Other Companies' consists of ~11 additional companies,

including SI-Bone (SIBN, Not Rated) and VB Spine (Private). For SIBN we utilized a similar methodology of leveraging ConsensusTECHNOLOGY estimates and an estimated Y/Y growth rate for outer years. For VB Spine, we utilized company historical data and phased out

contribution beginning in FY26 attributable to its divestiture to VB Spine.

For each company, we included a day-adjusted growth rate (beginning in 1Q25 through 1Q26). The day-adj. growth applies

differences in selling days to the Y/Y xFx growth rate, so that we are able to properly account for disclosed selling day headwinds

and tailwinds which take place throughout the quarters and FYs.INDUSTRY Figure 1: Spine Market Share Figure 2: 2Y Stacked Growth

Spine Market Share 2Y Stacked Growth

35.0% 100.0%

30.0% 80.0%

25.0%