ABVX (Best Idea) - New Analysis & Framing Expectations for Obefazimod's Malignancy Profile Ahead of ABTECT Part Two Maintenance Readout

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ABVX (Best Idea) - New Analysis & Framing Expectations for Obefazimod's Malignancy Profile Ahead of ABTECT Part Two Maintenance Readout

June 18, 2026

Yatin Suneja yatin.suneja@guggenheimpartners.com ABVX (Best Idea) - New Analysis & Framing

212 518 9565 Expectations for Obefazimod's Malignancy Profile

Min Lee, Ph.D.

min.lee@guggenheimpartners.com Ahead of ABTECT Part Two Maintenance Readout

212 823 6744

Eddie Hickman, Ph.D. Key Message: Following mgmt's recent sell-side call framing expectations for ABTECT eddie.hickman@guggenheimpartners.com Part Two, our analysis (see Figures 1-4 below) of obefazimod's pooled Phase IIa/IIb/III 212 518 9904

UC data suggests NMSC and non-NMSC cases per 100 PYs fall toward the lower end

Delma Caiati, M.D., Ph.D. of mgmt's benchmark range (0.7–1.4 NMSCs, 0.3–0.7 non-NMSCs). Our conversations

delma.caiati@guggenheimpartners.com with investors suggest no clear consensus on what the "right" rate should look 617 859 4606 like for either NMSCs or non-NMSCs. That said, most investors view the company-

Iris Gao, Ph.D. provided range as reasonable, and we believe that if obe's number is toward the

iris.gao@guggenheimpartners.com middle-to-lower end of the range, it should be well received. Additionally, the Street

212 518 9013 is increasingly contextualizing elevated background BCC/SCC incidence, which is also

reassuring from a sentiment perspective. We continue to think the set-up into the

readout is conservative, as we get a sense that some of the nervous investors

(generalists) have already trimmed their positions. Hence, if the safety data are

clean and convincing, we expect incremental demand for the stock and expect itABVX BUY to trade back up to the $130–150 range. Reiterate BUY; ABVX remains our Best Idea. ABIVAX Société Anonyme