Model Update: Adjusting Estimates For Expected Tax Cadence

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update: Adjusting Estimates For Expected Tax Cadence

TD Cowen McKesson

Global Research June 18, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

We are Buy rated on MCK, as we believe that the company's sustainable growth model can ■ F1Q27 results

drive margin expansion, given the strong underlying fundamentals in U.S. Pharma and Specialty ■ Capital deployment, including dividend,

Solutions, particularly Specialty, as well as growth opportunities from secular tailwinds. share repo, and M&A

Management has demonstrated effective execution in driving operational efficiencies, along

with focusing on key growth areas, including specialty/oncology and upstream biopharma

services.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ Health care utilization (particularly for ■ Stronger-than-expected growth in ■ Health care utilization decelerates

specialty medications) continues to specialty/oncology and upstream ■ Inflationary pressure on both labor and

improve throughout 2026 biopharma services (RxTS) supply costs are greater than expected

■ Modest incremental labor and supply ■ Better-than-expected generics/biosimilars

chain costs and/or higher margin businesses

Price Performance Company Description

McKesson is one of the largest pharmaceutical distributors in the U.S. Servicing both

1,100

pharmaceutical manufacturers and health care providers in the $500+ billion U.S.

pharmaceutical market, McKesson provides drug distribution, medical/surgical supply

1,000 distribution, and upstream biopharma services & data analytics solutions. Through its US

Pharmaceutical division, McKesson primarily distributes brand, generic, and specialty

900 pharmaceuticals, as well as OTC and health and beauty care products, throughout North

America.