Home Appliances: 618 Likely Marks the Phase Out of Subsidies

Research evidence excerpt

Home Appliances: 618 Likely Marks the Phase Out of Subsidies

China (PRC) | Home Appliances EquityJuneResearch16, 2026

Home Appliances: 618 Likely Marks the Phase

Out of Subsidies

We conducted checks focusing on China's white goods demand during

the 618 promotion. We expect the appliances trade-in subsidy to gradually

phase out. If the subsidies end, we expect the most negative impact on

Gree, while Midea's export and industrial businesses provide good cushion.

We estimate white goods retail sales to decline by 5% YoY during the 618

promotions, slightly better than that of 1Q26.

*618 feedback shows fading subsidies. On average, we estimate the on-line subsidy value

during 2026's 618 promotion is 50% of that of the last year. While some experts indicated

that the subsidy has shifted to the off-line, we estimate the off-line subsidy to be 80% of last

year's levels. We witnessed reducing subsidies from both the government (especially the local

governments) and e-commerce platforms (especially JD.com). Although brands like Midea

increased its subsidy to consumers YoY, the overall subsidy is likely down YoY.

*Does this mean the end of China's trade-in stimulus? We detected significant investor

debates on the sustainability of the subsidy program. More bullish investors argue we are in

yet another transition period between two subsidy programs, while bearish investors expect

the beginning of the termination of trade-in stimulus. Our conversations with experts suggest

that the stimulus policy is already in a phase out stage: local government and e-commerce

platforms may gradually wind down the subsidies in the coming months. We expect brands

to continue to provide some subsidies. See report:

Home Appliances : 618: Shifting Subsidy Burden Poses Risk to the Appliance Brands