OQEP (OQEP OM) Buy: Growth strategy to start crystalising soon

Research evidence excerpt

OQEP (OQEP OM) Buy: Growth strategy to start crystalising soon

a conversion of the existing service contract into a

production-sharing concession with possible development upside. 52-WEEK PRICE (OMR)

0.60

Dividend outlook: Despite the recent oil price correction, we expect OQEP’s

realised oil price to be roughly flat between 1H26 and 2H26 with a strong dividend 0.44

outlook in 2026. The latter may also be supported by a possible one-off related to 0.28

06/25 12/25 06/26

completion of acquisition of a 35% stake in Block 27 with economic date set on

Target price: 0.56 High: 0.54 Low: 0.32 Current: 0.46

1 January 2025. The company’s dividends will no longer be driven by FCF from 2027

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

when OQEP expects to pay out 25-35% of CFFO, though full details of the policy and

CFFO definition have yet to be disclosed. We think the new policy implies slightly

Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

lower DPS, all else equal, even assuming the higher end of the payout range. Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

However, OQEP management believes that in the USD65/b oil price scenario, the HSBC Bank plc

ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

company should be able to generate enough CFFO to fund close to USD600m of +44 20 7992 3302

dividends a year assuming a 35% payout ratio, in line with the current base dividend Kim Fustier*

amount. This could imply some upside to our forecasts, possibly materialising Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

through the M&A pipeline. A wide payout ratio range implies, however, a possible kim.fustier@hsbc.com

need to balance dividends and growth investments in the future. +44 20 3359 2136

Sriharsha Pappu*

Cut TP to OMR0.56 (from OMR0.58); maintain Buy: We adjust our estimates to Global Head of Energy & Materials