FAセクター選好順位の見直し：HDSとSMCを格上げ、オムロンを格下げ

Research evidence excerpt

FAセクター選好順位の見直し：HDSとSMCを格上げ、オムロンを格下げ

Capital Goods

Equity Research

June 16, 2026

cutback, and deceleration in China's PMI. Upside risks include stronger orders for reduction gears, Nabtesco receiving new large-lot projects for

automatic door business, and stronger profit bookings in China for its rolling stock equipment business.

SMC

We set our price target for SMC at ¥94,700, on an EV/EBITDA of 18.6x, one standard deviation above the average during FY3/24-27 year to

date and based on our FY3/27 EBITDA forecast. Downside risks include further slowdown in automotive and semiconductor capex. Upside risks

include SMC conducting share buybacks, boosting dividend payout, and continuing upward revisions over the next four quarters.

Harmonic Drive Systems

Our price target of ¥10,000 is based on EV/EBITDA of 46x, one standard deviation above the average during FY3/24-27 year to date (in line with the

peak level during FY3/14-19, the previous period of steady order uptrend), and our new FY3/28 EBITDA forecast. Downside risks to the share-price

performance include weak orders from robot sector, further delays in semiconductor device majors' resumption of capex plan, and competitors

securing large-lot orders from the robot sector. Upside risks include stronger order and profit recovery than our forecasts.

Daifuku

Our price target of ¥8,000 is based on a EV/EBITDA of 17.2x, slightly more than one standard deviation above the average level during FY3/24-26

year to date, and our FY12/27 EBITDA forecast. Downside risks include overall slowdown in semiconductor sector capex plans, deteriorating

profitability in logistics projects, a setback in e-commerce operators' capex plans, and Korean competitors securing large-lot orders from

semiconductor sector customers.

CKD