Asian FX Focus: PHP Back to non-oil drivers

Research evidence excerpt

Asian FX Focus: PHP Back to non-oil drivers

18 June 2026

Asian FX Focus: PHP CurrenciesEM Asia

Back to non-oil drivers

◆ USD-PHP has fallen over the past week due to lower oil Joey Chew

prices and a USD bond issuance HeadThe Hongkongof Asia FXandResearchShanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

◆ But a deeper correction is looking increasingly difficult, after a joey.s.chew@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 5186

hawkish shift in the Fed that supports the USD Jingyang Chen

Asian FX Strategist

◆ Even after the BSP’s rate hike today, the PHP’s interest rate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

jingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk

differential may still seem narrow +852 2996 6558

Paul Mackel

The PHP’s recovery since 12 June (after US President Trump said “ended war with Global Head of FX Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Iran today”; Bloomberg) to-date has been the most impressive (alongside the INR) paulmackel@hsbc.com

among Asian currencies (Chart 1). We think this is fair since the PHP arguably has +852 2288 5523

less non-oil related issues compared to other Asian peers that had also significantly

underperformed during the conflict (IDR, KRW).

Another thing that is likely supporting sentiment for the PHP in the near term: the

government issued a USD bond on 16 June (settlement date: 24 June). Over the

past 10 years, such issuances led to PHP strength versus the USD about 56% of the

time, and PHP outperformance versus other Asian currencies 38% of the time, in the

1-2 weeks post-settlement (more impressive than it sounds, given the PHP’s

depreciation trend; Chart 2). This likely reflects FX conversion to PHP by the

government, and/or the market’s expectations thereof.