TELECOM OPERATORS : EU Phonebook 1Q26 follow-up: further data points show slowing FBB growth ex-satellite and FWA

Research evidence excerpt

TELECOM OPERATORS : EU Phonebook 1Q26 follow-up: further data points show slowing FBB growth ex-satellite and FWA

EQUITIES

TELECOM OPERATORS

FLASH NOTE

EU Phonebook 1Q26 follow-up: further data points show slowing FBB

growth ex-satellite and FWA

18 JUNE 2026 Sector Research Report Production time: 10:13* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Abhilash Mohapatra BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8675 abhilash.mohapatra@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

* Following our EU Phonebook 1Q26: Ready for the satellite squeeze? report earlier this week, we have had various

discussions with investors on the nature of the challenge posed by satellite (specifically SpaceX’s Starlink service) and

FWA to traditional broadband. We have also reviewed additional datapoints from various national telecoms regulators

and Ericsson around satellite/ Starlink take-up which we summarise below (along with other charts).

* We still believe that Starlink/ FWA are unlikely to pose a widespread substitution risk to fixed broadband in

Europe. Fixed network quality is generally high with broad and increasing FTTH availability (although FTTH coverage

varies by country) and prices are generally low following years of intense competition (more players and an

interventionist regulatory approach).

* However, there are challenges, as follows (with charts further below).

1) Ericsson data shows that that satellite (incl. Starlink) and FWA continue to make gains and are forecast to increase

their number of subscribers significantly in coming years. We note that the usefulness of this data in European context

is somewhat limited as the data is for ‘global’ (rather than just for Europe). However, using regulatory data, we can see