METALS INSIGHTS : BOL, MTLN, STLD, NUE, OUT1V, MINING NOTE

Research evidence excerpt

METALS INSIGHTS : BOL, MTLN, STLD, NUE, OUT1V, MINING NOTE

to our copper and aluminium preference

BOL SS (-) to (=) • TP raised by 20% to SEK515 • Downside: 12% • Price: SEK584.0 (17 Jun. 26)

MTLN LN (+) to (=) • TP cut by 24% to EUR44 • Upside: 5% • Price: EUR42.0 (17 Jun. 26)

Our preference YTD at the commodity level has been for copper and aluminium and we're sticking with that call. Copper continues to

benefit from long-term demand drivers and medium-term supply constraints while aluminium is in a higher-for-longer price environment

in our opinion. The global aluminium market was tight heading into 2026 and the implications from the conflict in the Middle East will

have a multi-year impact before capacity utilisation rates normalise. We downgrade Metlen (from + to =, here ) and upgrade Boliden (-

to =, here ). Outperform names are First Quantum, Freeport, Norsk Hydro, Barrick, Anglo American, Glencore, Rio Tinto and South32.

Equities have re-rerated, investor interest broadening out

Aside from the gold miners in our coverage, all miners have outperformed their metal basket YTD, with pure plays and diversifieds

ranging between a +9-50% outperformance vs their basket. In our conversations with investors, we're speaking to a wider audience,

highlighting a growing acceptance of mining's critical role in the global electrification and emerging market industrialisation amidst

supply constraints. This can be seen in the data, with our Strategy team estimating that the highest percentage of European long only

active managers are overweight mining since late 2018. However, this does start from a low point as the mining sector remains the

second lowest overweight sector.

Copper (FQM, FCX top picks) and aluminium (NHY top pick) exposure remains our preference