METALS & MINING : 2026 half-time report - sticking to our copper and aluminium preference

Research evidence excerpt

METALS & MINING : 2026 half-time report - sticking to our copper and aluminium preference

Commodity price forecasts

Geopolitics remain front and centre in 2026 while investors have shown a renewed and

broadening interest in commodities. Despite experiencing significant volatility,

investment and central bank demand for gold is expected to be supported by ongoing

geopolitical risk, with further investment impetus from elevated inflation. We modestly

trimmed our 2026 gold price forecasts to USD4,800/oz (-4%), which is in-line with

consensus but more cautious in the outer years (-8% in 2027 and -6% in 2028).

The Middle East conflict has reignited a global push for energy security. The rapid build-

out of new energy capacity over the coming decades is likely to emerge as a critical driver

of metal demand with a particularly meaningful impact on the green steel and base metal

markets.

Our bullish outlook on copper remains unchanged and we expect a c600kt deficit (c2%

of total demand) in 2026. The concentrate market is still exceptionally tight, with spot TCs

falling below negative USD100/t. Cochilco cut its 2026 production outlook by 240kt driven

by lower ore grades, maintenance work and operational constraints. Ivanhoe (NC) has

again lowered its medium-term copper production guidance from the Kamoa-Kakula

mine in the DRC as it struggles to get back on track following a seismic event which

triggered flooding last year. The new guide of 290-330kt in 2026 and 380-420kt in 2027

is a sizable downward revision of 90kt and 120kt respectively. Guidance for Grasberg’s

ramp-up has also been downgraded by 140kt for both 2026 and 2027 driven by changes

in operating conditions in the mine.

Sulphuric acid availability is also creating supply risk on global SxEw copper output. The