BOLIDEN (=) : Underperformance creates a more balanced risk/reward

Research evidence excerpt

BOLIDEN (=) : Underperformance creates a more balanced risk/reward

EQUITIES

METALS & MINING

BOLIDEN PRICE*NEUTRALSEK584.0  TARGETFROMUNDERPERFORMPRICE SEK515 (DOWNSIDE 12%) TARGET 20%PRICE EPS12%26e EPS20%27e

Underperformance creates a more balanced risk/reward

Boliden has been one of the biggest laggards in our coverage YTD, trailing a basket of European18 JUNE 2026

Securities Research Report peers by more than 30%, as seismic activity at Garpenberg has reintroduced more operational

Production time: 05:15* (London time)

uncertainty to the Mining division. We upgrade our 2026-2028 EBITDA forecasts by +6-10% on our

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

revised commodity deck in our sector note today (here). We are largely in-line with 2026 and 2027

Alan Spence consensus but -10% below for 2028 EBIT excl PIR (Boliden’s key metric). Upgrade to Neutral fromBNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 203 430 8554 Underperform.

alan.spence@uk.bnpparibas.com

Laggard equity performanceQiang Zeng

Boliden has been one of the biggest laggards in our coverage YTD, underperforming a selection ofBNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 207 039 9441 European mining peers by more than 30% and even the broader SXPP Index (Basic Resources) by

qiang.zeng@uk.bnpparibas.com more than 20%. The relative underperformance opened up in mid-March as seismic activity at the

Garpenberg zinc mine prompted a stoppage of activity followed by a downgrade of throughput

guidance for 2026 and 2027. While the installation of a second hoist will lift throughput in 2031, it

remains yet to be seen what the rate will be in 2028-2030 with management hoping to provide an

update by December. At our CEO Conference in early June, Boliden CEO Mikael Staffas sounded