BMW: BMW Profit Warns on its '26 Guidance

Research evidence excerpt

BMW: BMW Profit Warns on its '26 Guidance

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Tom Narayan (Analyst)

Thomas Ito, CFA (Senior Associate)

June 16, 2026

BMW

BMW Profit Warns on its '26 Guidance

XETRA: BMW | EUR 64.36 | Sector Perform | Price Target EUR 84.00

Sentiment: Negative

What happened? BMW issued a profit warning today, as required by German law, materially cutting its FY '26 outlook across key

financial metrics. The automotive EBIT margin guidance was nearly halved to 1-3% (from 4-6%), RoCE was slashed to 1-5% (from

6-10%), and Group PBT is now expected to see a significant decline versus a prior expectation of a moderate decrease. The primary

culprit is an accelerating deterioration in the Chinese passenger car market (CPCA expects the market down 14.3% y/y in '26),

with competitive pressures spilling over into broader APAC (the combined market effects accounting for ~2/3 of the EBIT guidance

cut, or ~€2.3B) – headwinds that volume gains in Europe and the US cannot offset. Compounding this, the lingering effects of the

Middle East conflict continue to weigh on energy costs and global consumer sentiment. Q2/26 FCF is expected to be >€2.5B (vs

consensus at €5.3B), and while BMW is expanding its cost reduction program, the associated restructuring charges will create an

additional one-time headwind in H2/26, accounting for the remaining ~1/3 of the EBIT guidance cut (~€1.2B).

What do we think? We would expect shares to trade meaningfully lower on the guidance cut and limited visibility on the

China/APAC turnaround. Despite outperforming peers on China deliveries in Q1/26, we thought volume declines could persist in

subsequent quarters (see report). BMW's YTD '26 China sales through May are down ~17.6% y/y due to the market deterioration

in China.